Bill Giles O.B.E
Former BBC Senior Weatherman
The idea that climate change is being fuelled mainly by the increase in carbon dioxide was strongly condemned recently a programme on television entitled “The Global Warming Swindle.”
A few illustrious scientists were wheeled out to, not only refute the latest report of the United Nations International Panel on Climate Change, but to try to completely dismiss it out of hand saying it was based on totally flawed research and unacceptable mathematical computer models, and that the change in climate is entirely due to the changing output of the Sun.
I believe that they have made the same mistake as some of those who choose the carbon dioxide theory in believing that it is one or the other; it is not as simple as that. The job of the broadcast meteorologist is to translate the science of meteorological prediction, which is now almost exclusively based on computer models, into a language that the listener or viewer will understand. It is a very difficult task to find meteorologists who can effectively cope with this as I found out whilst leading a team of twenty broadcast meteorologists at the BBC Weather Centre; in fact I could only use about 3% of the people recruited and trained in forecasting the weather. This is no slur on weather forecasters in general, as they do a very good job, but more of a statement on the difficulty that all areas of science has in describing their research to the layman. Describing forecast weather five days ahead is not an easy task so to look and discuss climate change over the next century is even more difficult.
In meteorology even the simple forecasting of, say, temperature for a few days ahead can be complicated and depend on numerous factors such as the time of the year, the stability of the atmosphere, wind velocity, latitude and altitude to name but a few. Climate change has many more factors to consider so although the vast majority of the world’s mathematical and environmental scientists consider increasing greenhouse gases as being primarily responsible for the warming of the planet, I think some weight must also be given to solar activity and even natural climate variability. We must not get polarised on this issue, although I must say that it seems likely that the greenhouse gases far outweigh any of the other factors. The problem comes when translating this science into a language non-scientists will understand and this, in my opinion, is where initial training and continuous updating of the broadcast meteorologist from every country in the world is of paramount importance.
A few illustrious scientists were wheeled out to, not only refute the latest report of the United Nations International Panel on Climate Change, but to try to completely dismiss it out of hand saying it was based on totally flawed research and unacceptable mathematical computer models, and that the change in climate is entirely due to the changing output of the Sun.
I believe that they have made the same mistake as some of those who choose the carbon dioxide theory in believing that it is one or the other; it is not as simple as that. The job of the broadcast meteorologist is to translate the science of meteorological prediction, which is now almost exclusively based on computer models, into a language that the listener or viewer will understand. It is a very difficult task to find meteorologists who can effectively cope with this as I found out whilst leading a team of twenty broadcast meteorologists at the BBC Weather Centre; in fact I could only use about 3% of the people recruited and trained in forecasting the weather. This is no slur on weather forecasters in general, as they do a very good job, but more of a statement on the difficulty that all areas of science has in describing their research to the layman. Describing forecast weather five days ahead is not an easy task so to look and discuss climate change over the next century is even more difficult.
In meteorology even the simple forecasting of, say, temperature for a few days ahead can be complicated and depend on numerous factors such as the time of the year, the stability of the atmosphere, wind velocity, latitude and altitude to name but a few. Climate change has many more factors to consider so although the vast majority of the world’s mathematical and environmental scientists consider increasing greenhouse gases as being primarily responsible for the warming of the planet, I think some weight must also be given to solar activity and even natural climate variability. We must not get polarised on this issue, although I must say that it seems likely that the greenhouse gases far outweigh any of the other factors. The problem comes when translating this science into a language non-
